Friday

A PERSONAL NOTE FROM WES



TO THOSE WHO SUFFER FROM BEING SPRING-LOADED TO THE "I'M OFFENDED POSITION"...

The term "you guys"when used by the author is not intended to be gender specific and is simply a derivation of Wes' mid Michigan accent as opposed to the thumb of Michigan version of "Youzguys" which equates to any group of persons who happen to in his mind, at any having been given time in any given rambling, mall meeting, ice fishing, car in the ditch, blizzard, smelt dipping, snowball fight, deer camp, I-75 accident, pasty order, canoe trip, armed robbery, factory lay-off, unemployment line or hockey game.

Thank you for your understanding. 

If, however, you still feel offended or about to be offended, simply go and get yet another "coexist" bumper sticker and apply it across your computer screen.

Sunday

THE NIGHT I EARNED 2 "HANSONS"


It was March of 1978, early in my second term at the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach and my family had come down to visit me. Along with my younger sister, her friend from high school and my roommate we all went to this theater in South Daytona to see “Saturday Night Fever.” We got there and the theater manager demanded to see our I.D. because it was an “R” rated movie. At that moment I discovered that I’d left my wallet in my dorm room. He would not let us in because I could not prove that I was 18… of course I was actually 20. 

Okay fine- we drive all the way back to the dorm, I get my wallet and we drove back to the theater and I showed the guy that I am in fact 20 years old. Now he refuses to let us in because, “the feature began four minutes ago and I do not want to disturb the audience.”

Okay, now I’m pissed because this guy is just being an asshole. An argument begins with me telling him straight up that he’s being an asshole. Finally he turns to his ticket girl and says, “Mary,” or whatever he name was, “call South Daytona Police.”

Now I cool down a little and say, “Okay… let’s just discuss this in a business-like manner.” With that he reaches across his candy counter and shoves me on the shoulder while brat-shouting “NO!” Yep… there I am in my hockey jacket with the patches of four different leagues on it and he decides to put his hand on me. NOT a good move.

I looked at the little ticket girl and calmly said, “Mary, call South Daytona Police,” and over the counter I went!

What I did not know was that this guy was such an asshole that he caused a confrontation nearly every night and then called the cops. As a result, the SDPD were parked in a two-man car just out front of the theater. Thus, in a matter of minutes two officers came through the door and found me stuffing that jerk’s head into the popcorn machine while my sister looked on like, “There he goes again” and my roommate looked on in shock along with my sister’s friend.

I’ll never forget the cop pulling me off of that jerk and as the asshole lifted his head there was a piece of popcorn lodged behind his ear.

“I want him arrested for assault and battery!” the asshole demanded to the cop as he pointed at me.

“NO WAY!” I demanded pointing back, “It’s mutual combat! He touched me first! He’s got no business putting his hand on me!”

The officer looked at the little ticket girls and asked, “Is that right? Did he touch him first?”

The girl nodded “yes” and I snarled, “Right and maybe they’ll put us both in the same holding cell and I can finish you off!”

With that the two officers separated us by a wide distance and one took the asshole’s story while his partner took my story. Then both officers met talked briefly and my officer returned and asked if I wanted to file a complaint ? I said if the jerk files I’ll file. He said that they were clearly informing the manager that he is lucky that I did not retaliate much more violently and he could easily go to jail tonight if I wished to send him there. I said that all I wanted to do was see a movie. The officers met again and then my officer returned.

“I wanna tell you,” he said, “don’t ever do something like this again. Having said that I have to tell you that we get so much trouble from that guy that my partner and I have always wished to come through those doors and find someone doin’ that to him. You just made our whole month.”

Then he explained that I could write to the theater chain’s office and complain and that my friends and I could come back the next evening and the manager has been warned not to hassle us in any manner. We came back the next night and saw the movie… of course I had to order popcorn.

That night I decided that I needed to put that hockey player in me away if I was going to be a professional aviator and I pretty much did that. Of course my wife would likely dispute that, but I think it’s true. I do, however, give myself two Hansons for that head in the popcorn machine thing.

Tuesday

CELEBRATING MY FIRST GOAL

Celebrating my first goal: 40 years ago tonight

I was a late comer to the great sport of hockey because hockey fever and the Saginaw Gears did not arrive in Saginaw Michigan until 1972. Indeed there was amateur hockey there prior to that, but for me skating was normally done on the rink that my Dad made in our backyard each winter. Then came the new Saginaw Civic Center, Wendler Arena and professional hockey. I was hooked immediately and I had one great advantage in my development in the fact that my Dad became the Zamboni driver for the Gears. Being a son of a Zamboni driver has one important advantage- all the free ice time you can want. Thus, I began playing hockey as a very good skater. Therein resided one drawback; I found myself permanently stuck as a defenseman.

Very often I tried to convince the coaches that I could play forward, that I could score goals, that I could put the puck in the net… and I always got the same answer, “Yer the best backward skater we’ve got, I need you on D.”

Ugh.

Considering that I also had the world’s suckiest slapshot I never got a goal from the blue line. Sure I got some assists and I had a wrist shot that would thread a needle but I was always stuck in the blue line with my sucky slapshot. Once when I did eventually become a forward I reflexively tried a slapshot that was so bad when I returned to the bench my coach just snarled, “If I ever see you do that again, yer’ never getting’ off the bench.” Yep- my slapshot sucked- so scoring from the point never happened for me.

Another one that I heard all the time when I’d complain that I wanted to go off of defense and score goals was, “You could be an offense of defenseman… Like Bobby Orr.” To which I always answered, “I ain’t Bobby Orr, and this team ain’t the Boston Bruins. If I leave the point none of these guys are savvy enough to drop back and cover it.” And there the discussion always ended.

Coach after coach, team after team, season after season, winter league, spring league I went through the same drill. Finally in February 1976 toward the end of the season I was playing in Midland. Michigan at the old outdoor rink. As luck would have it that night, my team was stocked with one extra defenseman. Again I went to the coach and nagged to play up front. “Okay,” he groaned with resignation, “you can be right wing on the third line.”

On my first shift that night I picked up a bouncer in the slot stretched around behind the net to the right side and back- handed it into the lower corner on the wrap-around. My very first shift as a forward and I scored a goal. I picked up the puck, skated back to the bench, handed it to the coach and said, “Here, save this for me.” He just shook his head and said, “From now on yer’ a forward.” I picked up two assists that night and we won the game 4 to 3.

Following season I was playing in the juniors and as we started training camp the coach was one that I had previously argued bitterly about letting me play forward. In fact that dispute became so inflamed that led to my departure from the high school hockey league. Of course, I got a call the next day asking me to come and play in the midget leagues- where they promptly stuck me on D. Now as I went to start my first practice with the Saginaw junior B team I walked up to my old coach and he asked how I was “feeling.” I knew what he meant so I just told him that I had a new outlook because I was a forward now. He simply shrugged and said, “Okay, I’ve got lots of D this season.” He and I got along VERY well that season as I got my share of goals and even ended up starting.


For some crazy reason after all these years I kept that stupid puck. The same one that I scored my first goal with and then gleefully carved into it the date and the words, “first goal.” It’s funny how years later, okay… Decades later, you can clearly remember little events such as the one represented by that puck. I close my eyes I can still see it going right through that corner as the goaltender stretched in vain to try and stop it. I guess the wrinkle in my brain where that memory resides takes up the space where something like algebra should be stored, but couldn’t get in.

Thursday

Snowballs are important



Teaching your kids to make snowballs is important. I have two girls and I teach them that snowballs are important in life.

It teaches them the dexterity to properly pack and shape the snow into an aerodynamic form.

It teaches them to throw with accuracy and hit a target.

It teaches them how to sight and hit a target of choice.

It teaches them to rapidly reload.

It teaches them to pick off an opponent while defending from a good position.

It teaches them to covertly approach an adversary and strike without remorse.

It teaches them to take hits and keep on fighting.

It teaches them to show no mercy when fired upon by an enemy.

It teaches them to stock-pile ammunition so that it can be used in a saturation volley that will cause shock and awe.

It teaches them that victory goes to the smart, strong, resourceful and cunning.

It teaches them that surrender is only a fade to a better position from which to attack in greater violence.

It teaches them that revenge is best served cold in overwhelming volumes.

It teaches them to vanquish their opponents and destroy their fortifications and then do the same to their enemy’s allies.

It teaches them to trample the weak and hurtle the dead.


Snowballs are important.

A FEW WORDS ABOUT POWERBALL


A few words about the powerball lottery...

I could write a book about all of the awful stuff that happens to folks after they "win" that money. Keep in mind that I spent a good part of my aviation career flying some of the most wealthy people in America around- NONE of them were happy. We should all look around us and see just what we have that money cannot buy- then come to the realization that we are already far more "rich" than any lottery winner.

Friday

RULES FOR 2016

Wanna have a good New Year? Fine.... for those of you who actually take advice from  slobs on the internet, here are my rules for the year 2016.

1. Don't do ANYTHING based on what everyone else is doing.
2. Acting mature is for teenagers.
3. Take care of your responsibilities, yet remember the old Polish proverb, "Not my circus, not my monkeys."
4. All things in moderation.
5. Never follow anyone- there are far too many idiots out there with good P.R. staffs.
6. Your New Years resolution... isn't.
7. Everything you see on your TV is FAKE, unless it says "NASA" in the corner.
8. Proper use of the internet is making up 12 sick horoscopes every day and then posting them for people who actually believe that crap.
9. Carry a beat up hockey stick everywhere you go... people will leave you alone.
10. When making a list like this, never stop at ten, because everyone expects you to stop at ten.
11. 2016 is an election year, record 800 hours of music that you like and listen to it until election day- avoid all other media.
12. Every day, take some time to stop and look closely at every single thing around you- in detail.
14. Always skip number 13... trust me on this one.
15. Be glad for your own troubles- everyone else's are worse.
16. Laugh.
17. Always stop at 17... no one expects it.

Wednesday

BREAKING NEWS- SPACEX PLANS FALCON 9BA


KLYDE MORRIS.COM was contacted by a SpaceX senior engineer, who requested to remain anonymous, and given the inside information on the rumored SpaceX Falcon 9 Bravo-Alpha launch vehicle said to be in the planning stages.

“What’s really important here at SpaceX,” the source said, “is how bad-ass a project is, or as we like to say- how Bravo-Alpha it is.”

Recently rumors have been floating around in the SpaceX fanboy community, of a new huge and amazingly powerful booster being designed called the Falcon 9 Bravo-Alpha.

“The Bravo-Alpha launch vehicle has been undergoing a lot of study,” the source confirmed, “just because it’s so Bravo-Alpha.”

According to fanboy sources on internet spaceflight forums, the Falcon 9 Bravo-Alpha will be a standard Falcon 9 1.1 booster with eight more Falcon 9s strapped around it in a cluster.

“It’ll be sort of like a Saturn IB,” the source explained, “only way, way more Bravo-Alpha. I mean we’re talkin’ 81 engines here, that’s 11.7 million pounds of thrust. Now that is so Bravo-Alpha that Elon tweeted us to just do it.”

KLYDE MORRIS.COM asked if making such a rocket was even possible?

“Who cares if it’s possible,” the source quipped, “at SpaceX we don’t even consider what is or isn’t possible all that’s important is how Bravo-Alpha it is.”

When KLYDE MORRIS.COM asked how soon SpaceX expected to have the new mega-booster ready to fly, the source explained that it should take five to seven years to fully design, build and test the vehicle, so Elon gave them eight months to get it done.

“Each of the nine cores will be fly-back, reusable stages.” the source told KLYDE MORRIS.COM.

When asked where SpaceX planned to land these nine returning rocket stages, the source simply shrugged and stated that they would probably just bulldoze and cement over a couple more of those old Atlas launch complexes at Cape Canaveral.

Of course the question remains, what would such a huge booster be used for?

“Like that matters?” the source chuckled.

Asked how SpaceX will fit this Falcon 9 Bravo-Alpha into their perpetually overloaded launch schedule, the source replied,

“We’ll probably do it the way we do everything else. We’ll fly a few more Falcon 9 1.1s, then scrap that vehicle in favor of the Falcon 9 Heavy and after a few flights we’ll scrap that for the Falcon 9 Bravo-Alpha.”


As KLYDE MORRIS.COM asked the source if the real reason for having the huge Falcon 9 Bravo-Alpha was to loft all of the heavy payloads needed to assemble a real Star Wars Millennium Falcon in space that Elon Musk can fly himself, our source suddenly vanished in a brilliant flash of light before he was able to answer.

Saturday

The day the first Klyde appeared

February 14th, 1978, the day that the first Klyde Morris cartoon appeared in the Avion newspaper at Embry-Riddle. It was a day that I remember quite clearly. I had gotten the go-ahead to submit the cartoon the previous Thursday and now, less than a week later it was coming out in print. This was Avion day on campus and the papers were set out at assorted locations at about noon. For the rest of the afternoon everyone had an Avion and was intently reading it. Klyde would be on page 2, the Editorial Page and located in the bottom left corner, so when people opened the paper, there it would be. There were no other cartoons done by students in the Avion at that time- especially on page 2.

As a second term freshman I rode to campus that day on the rickety powder blue bus that transported us from the over-flow housing at the Royal Scottish Inn (the “RSI” in Riddle speak), which was anything but “Royal” to the main campus. ERAU had expanded enrollment that year and effectively doubled the student population from 2,500 to 5,000 the previous fall. Some 50% of which had dropped out by Thanksgiving and less than 15% of us returned for the spring term. So, the university brought in another few thousand and kept the population at around 5,000. To say there were growing pains would be more than an understatement. Classrooms were packed, dorms were filled, extra sections of courses were created on the fly and registration was a nightmare. Students began dropping out as soon as classes started. Many had come to ERAU for quite the wrong reason, such as the beach, parties (that were beyond rare), girls (which were even more rare- I think they numbered about a dozen when I started) and the “fun of flying” (at ERAU, flying is a profession- it’s serious- it ain’t just for fun). One guy who was in the RSI with me never attended classes, only flew a little bit and used most of his time spending his dad’s money customizing his van in the RSI’s parking lot. At the end of our freshman year, he got in it and simply drove away, never to be seen again. Thus ERAU was ripe for some cartoon satire and I just happened to have been born with the cynic/satire gene… now, it would be in print.

As each of us stepped off of the bus at the University Center (“UC” in ERAU speak) we each nabbed an Avion out of the rack. I opened mine on the spot and there was my cartoon. It didn’t look too bad either- considering that it had been drawn in ballpoint pen. Stuffing it into my book pouch I trotted off to the GRW complex and my NAV 1 class. I sat in the back and watched as the other guys came in, sat down and opened their Avions.

The guy in front of me looked at the front page, opened to the second page, scanned it, flipped to the Fraternity page! Nothin’! Not a laugh or a giggle… nothin’.

Another guy opened his and simply went right to the sports page!

The next person went right past too!

Again and again and again everyone either went right past my cartoon or had zero reaction! I’d expected a laugh or two or perhaps even a snicker, but there was just nothin’!

After class I shuffled around the UC to see if anyone there may have a sense of humor, but it all looked the same. Apparently no one thought much of a dumb cartoon drawn by an oddball freshman. On the bus ride back to the RSI people were reading the Avion, yet again no one said anything about my cartoon. I took a little comfort that at least no one was making fun of it. Later that day it began to rain one of those depressing Florida February rains… how fitting. Riding the bus back to campus for dinner that evening I pondered whether it was worth doing another cartoon. It may be better to save myself the embarrassment. One of the sayings in the ERAU flight department was, “death before embarrassment.” As we arrived at the UC and the bus door opened I made my way down the steps. There, sitting soaked in the gutter was an Avion, turned with my cartoon face-up. The guy ahead of me stepped on it!

Of course the folks at the Avion wanted more cartoons and insisted that they were “great” although I thought that the staff was just trying to make me feel better. What I did not know, and I would not figure out until the following autumn term, was that in places where I was not around, the cartoon was actually an instant hit- especially with the university staff and faculty. Of greatest importance, and again unknown to me was it was a hit with the Dean of Student Affairs Jeff Ledewitz and it was a major hit with University President Jack Hunt. In fact, shortly after the first cartoons I got a message in my box saying that Dr. Ledewitz wanted to “speak to me.” Then I got word that President Hunt was “Looking for me.” I was terrified! Here I was the son of two parents who had never finished high school, going to a prestigious university and I thought I was going to get kicked out because of a cartoon that drew! My folks would surely kill me.

For the better part of two weeks I dodged Ledewitz until one day his secretary came up to the Avion office with a copy of my ID with my picture and looking around the office spotted me. “You!” she said pointing to me- the most pail one in the room, “Dr. Ledewitz wants to see you, come on with me.” As it turned out he simply wanted to compliment me and say that he loved the strip. A couple of decades later he told me, “I expected to meet this wild and crazy guy, but you were really quiet and humble.” I explained that it was because I thought he was gonna expel me!

In or meeting, I did not say much and as I was leaving, Ledewitz said, “Oh, by the way, President Hunt is looking for you.” Oh GREAT, so the axe is gonna come from the top I thought. Fortunately, I did not see much of President Hunt for the rest of that term. We all knew that Jack Hunt knew EVERY student on our campus either by name, face, reputation, or all of the above- so there was no place to hide. One day, just before final exams I was coming down the stairs in the UC leaving the Avion office and across the dining room on the far right side, through the doors comes President Hunt! Holy shit! I got to the bottom and ducked around the corner into the hall pinning myself up against the wall as if escaping an assassin. After a few moments I peeked around the corner and Hunt was apparently gone. Gathering my wits I strolled toward the cafeteria entrance just beyond the pillars. As I walked past the last pillar something grabbed my left arm, “GOTCH!” President Hunt said jerking me around… he had been lurking behind the pillar in wait of me. Anyone who knows me well will tell you that I am not difficult to surprise- I am damned near impossible to surprise, but Hunt got me for sure. If it wasn’t for the fact that I was trying to live on one meal a day and had not eaten that day I’d have shit my pants. Of course President Hunt simply wanted to tell me how much he loved my cartoon strip and then he invited me to stop into his office anytime to just sit and talk about anything, “You’ll find that my door is always open to you.” he said. Some 30 years later, Dean Rockett would inform me that I was one of only TWO students to which President Hunt ever afforded that privilege. Rockett would not tell me who the other student was.

Of course I took President Hunt at his word and often rode my bicycle to the administration building and simply walked in to sit and talk. His secretary would just wave me on it. In one of those conversations, President Hunt really made it clear what my position was in his eyes and what my responsibility was as the cartoonist of the now quite popular strip. To this day I recall the exact words of that conversation;

“I don’t think you realize how much power you have.” Hunt said to me as I scoffed at the prospect. “If you were to draw a cartoon saying that the students should break out all of the windows in the University Center, the next day I would be getting calls from security telling me that windows in the UC were broken.”  I was stunned. “Oh God President Hunt,“ I gasped, “I’d NEVER do anything like that!” He just leaned back in his chair and looking at me over that huge snifter of iced tea that he always had on his desk he smiled and said, “Exactly. That’s why you’re the right person to be doing what you’re doing. Our university is going through growing pains, and we’ll be going through them for a long time to come. It’s better to have the students taking out their frustrations by seeing you lampoon me and things in that cartoon strip rather than taking it out on our property or my security staff.”


That day I came a long way from that depressing Valentine’s Day when the first strip came out and ended up soaking wet in the gutter.

Sunday

SPACEX: GETTING CLOSER

Cartoon by John Atkinson

Standing on the upper deck of my home and looking out across Chesapeake Bay toward the Atlantic I spotted a tiny orange pinpoint of light screaming across the clear winter sky. Traveling from south to north and elevated just about where a Space Shuttle mission to the International Space Station (ISS) should be (back in the days when we had a shuttle), I was sure that I was watching the SpaceX Falcon 9 boosting the Cargo Resupply (CRS) 5 mission. Freezing my tail off at just before five o’clock in the morning I did my best to keep my eye on that pinpoint of orange light. Suddenly it flashed bright white! I thought to myself, “that must be MECO” or Main Engine Cutoff. The pinpoint was gone for about as long as it took for me to whisper that thought to myself and then there was a second flash that was about three times brighter. Stepping back into the house I heard over my computer that MECO had taken place and the Dragon spacecraft was on its way to the ISS. The CRS-5 mission had been successfully launched.

That is what this launch of this Falcon 9 was actually all about; the CRS-5 mission. Yet for many in the SpaceX fan club, the CRS-5 mission took a back seat to something that seemed way more “cool.” That something was an attempt by SpaceX to soft-land the Falcon 9’s first stage on a barge positioned out in the Atlantic Ocean. For months there has been an Internet orgy of drooling speculation and fantasy about how awesome that first landing was going to be. Often, without a single consideration of the complexity involved in landing a huge rocket stage on a floating barge, the rabid fans raved on from behind their keyboards. Indeed this was not only going to be awesome, but SpaceX, according to their fans, was going to make it look easy. In the end the stage ended up crashed in pieces all over the barge and the fans were left to mumble, “bummer.”

Yet this was not a “bummer” at all- in fact it was an amazing accomplishment. Sure the true mission of the launch was to place in orbit the CRS-5 Dragon spacecraft, which SpaceX successfully did. That said, a secondary developmental aspect of the flight was to attempt to soft land the Falcon 9 first stage- something that could be considered nearly impossible.  On a previous attempt, they managed to hit the Atlantic Ocean and gained data on how to further advance effort. This time they actually hit the barge. Again they have gained a large volume of data and what this means is that SpaceX is now much, much closer to actually solving the equation and accomplishing the soft landing of a spent first stage.

Of course they are still nowhere near routinely landing these stages on dry land as if they were Thunderbird 3. The local political and especially environmental roadblocks will likely be more difficult to overcome than the engineering of the landing itself. Additionally it is important to keep in mind that SpaceX is struggling to consistently get their Falcon 9 version 1.1 off the ground on a routine basis and thus their demonstrating the ability to get the stages landed on a routine basis is probably nowhere in sight. Add to that the fact that SpaceX is planning to launch their Falcon 9 Heavy, which consists of three Falcon 9 boosters strapped together, and return them in a fly-back landing. Now they will have three huge thrusting boosters headed for Florida’s space coast simultaneously. Not the sort of thing that the owners of the huge cruise ships docked at nearby Port Canaveral, or the owners of expensive hotels and condominiums really want to mention to their insurance companies.


So, was Saturday morning’s crash of the Falcon 9 first stage on its target barge something to be gloomy about? No. That is, unless you would look at an encyclopedia of data filled with clues on how to accomplish the near-impossible and be bummed out about it. My bet is that as you read this SpaceX engineers are eagerly sifting through that data so they can apply changes to their next attempt as Elon Musk breathes down their necks.

Tuesday

I'M NOT SAYIN' IT'S IMPOSSIBLE

I’m not sayin’ it’s impossible

A few days ago I was reading a spaceflight forum and one of the SpaceX super-fans had started a pole asking others of his ilk “How many (Falcon 9) cores will SpaceX recover in 2015?” Of course by “recover” the question addressed the new fly-back first stage configuration of the Falcon 9 version 1.1 and the term “core” was a new-space term for that same first stage.

For those of you who have not been following SpaceX closely, the plan is for the Falcon 9’s first stage to, after staging, fall away and then re-ignite  and use its engines to slow it to the point where landing legs can be deployed to allow it to soft-land and be used again. The first of these sorts of recoveries is supposed to take place on a specially designed barge out in the Atlantic. It is an operation that has never been done previously.

Reading the comments in the SpaceX super-fan’s thread I kept seeing the other fans answering and predicting that the number of recovered cores in 2015 would be “4” or “5.” Over and over again these two numbers were in the replies. It reminded me of that old Saturday Night Live sketch by Comedy writer Robert Smigel of the Chicago Bears super-fans, “Da Bearss,” where the question may be how many Super Bowls will “Da Bearss” win? And the answers from the super-fans, over huge mugs of beer, would be something like, “4” or “5” or “25” or, “minimum 50” all without a shred of reality applied. That was the joke, and it made me laugh- just like the SpaceX super-fans vote of 5 recovered Falcon 9 cores in 2015; there’s not a shred of reality. To me the more plausible vote would actually be one or maybe even zero.

Even Elon Musk admits that the odds of recovering the first of these fully fly-back able boosters, which currently sits at Cape Canaveral after having its launch scrubbed, is about 50/50. Yet, personally, I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I am saying that getting this first attempt to land successfully on-target and intact is an incredibly complex operation involving factors that, in many cases, cannot be overcome with better software.

Additionally, before SpaceX can recover the stage, they have to get it off the ground. Scrubs seem to have become a habit with SpaceX along with schedule slips. The specific reasons are many and sometimes, such as cases where weather is the culprit, they are unavoidable. Yet when launching a resupply mission to the ISS, a simple hold in the count can scrub the entire day’s effort. The reason for this is that the Falcon 9 has a limitation in its overall power that allows the vehicle to launch to the ISS with only an instantaneous launch window. Thus it must launch precisely on time or the Dragon spacecraft will not be able to rendezvous with the station. So, a call of “Hold, hold, hold” equates to “Scrub, scrub, scrub.”

Everyone should keep in mind that the Falcon 9 series of boosters are extremely complex vehicles that are being asked to do unimaginably complex things. Thus just getting one off the ground in the first place is an amazing accomplishment. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I’m just saying that it ain’t easy by any stretch of the imagination. But to add to that foundation of complexity, SpaceX has the self-implemented fault of almost never launching the vehicle in the same configuration. Instead they try to leap-frog through the development by adding new game-changing stuff as almost every launch comes along.

The CRS-5 mission that was scrubbed today, (Tuesday January 6th) and has bunches of the SpaceX super-fans betting on how many cores their favored team will recover this year, was a mission to re-supply the ISS. That is what the American tax payers are supposed to be funding. That is what SpaceX proved that they could do with the Falcon 9 Version 1.0. I doubt that there was anything in that deal that involved fly-back cores or landing legs or anything else from “Tom Corbett Space Cadet,” (perhaps “The Thunderbirds” would be closer to Musk’s era). The mission is straight forward; fly cargo to the ISS and return cargo to earth. In spite of what the SpaceX super fans may think, the mission is ISS resupply and nothing more.

“The fly-back and recovery system had nothing to do with today’s scrub” the super-fan would reflexively bark back as easily as making their vote for “5.” Correct, yet it has added to the complexity of the overall mission. The more complex that the overall mission becomes the greater the possibility that small, yet critical things will be overlooked and may fail. SpaceX would be doing the US taxpayer a better service by simply launching the CRS Dragon on a proven Falcon 9, version 1.0, but those are no longer in vogue, now are they super-fans?

Another factor in my vote of “zero” is the ever increasing and over-reaching schedule set up annually by SpaceX for launches. In 2014 they projected that they would get 12 launches off the ground, they accomplished only 6. Now, for 2015 the projection is 15 launches. When any organization has a program with such complexity, where EVERY aspect must function every time, the pressure on the people attempting to meet an over-reaching schedule is so great that through human factors alone the end goals slip farther and farther from the organization’s grasp. The schedule goes from being ambitious to being caustic.

Even if Elon Musk wins his 50/50 bet (let’s face it folks, he is a born winner) and actually succeeds in soft-landing and recovering the CRS-5 first stage or “core” as the super-fans call it. The event is a far cry from doing the same thing repeatedly  4, or even 3 more times in the next 12 months. In fact people, such as myself, who actually are looking at SpaceX and wanting them to succeed will be happy if they just get 4 launches in a row off the ground on-time and on-date. Frankly, that would demonstrate far more to some of us than playing Thunderbird 3 with a Falcon 9 first stage.

Can the Falcon 9 version 1.1 one day become a workhorse for spaceflight? Well, when considering that question also consider the Atlas Centaur. The first version of that booster sat on the pad so long that the Cape Canaveral pad rats nick-named it “the civil servant” because it didn’t work and you couldn’t fire it. When it finally launched it flew for a total of 55 seconds before it crumpled into a fireball. The fifth Atlas Centaur got up about two feet and blew itself to pieces scattering bits of Atlas and Centaur, as well as the launch tower far and wide. In all 3 out of the first 5 of those boosters failed and suffered from multiple scrubs. Eventually, however, the Atlas Centaur went on to become one of the most trusted launch vehicles in the US inventory serving the Air Force and NASA from 1962 until 2004. So, I’m not saying it’s impossible for SpaceX and the Falcon 9 boosters to do great things- including landing a fly-back booster. But I’m also not saying “Da Baress” either.