Where are those Internet forum space experts now?

It has been HIGHLY amusing watching the Ares I haters after the launch. The silence has been quite loud. A few of them have tried the "re-contact" route, but that was rapidly shot down. There were some "yeah but" butts out there doing the "Yeah but, the 5 segment SRB will burn differently and may still TO" but no one is listening anymore.

The fact is that there are a lot of self-proclaimed "experts" out there as well as a crowd of their faithful followers who are now standing around with a lot of egg on their faces. NOT ONE of the critic's predicted horrors appeared- in fact, not even a hint of ANY of the predicted faults actually existed.

All of those cyber blow-hards with their blackberry-generated quips, their posts with tag lines saying things such as "Cancel the shaft now" or "Kill the stick" and so on have not had a lot to say- the screaming has gotten very quite and the arm waving has degenerated into a shrug or two. Even those "Kill the stick" sort of sub-tags have either vanished from forum posts or have been changed in many cases.

And so, the lesson here is that most of those critics who spoke the loudest, waved their arms the hardest and had the most toxic stuff to say about the Ares I-X did not really know what they were talking about- they only knew how to make it sound good and thus make themselves feel really important. Now, I'm sorry to say- their thrill is gone. But hey- perhaps the I-X Prime may come along and they can once again play in the mud puddle that is their own ego. They'll be back- trust me.

The Ares I... in trouble?

It seems to be that almost every spaceflight site on the Internet loves to publish that NASA's next launch vehicle, the Ares I, is in "trouble." That is... every place except where actual Ares I hardware technicians engineers exist.

Is the Ares I in trouble? Currently- the answer is "yes" only on the keyboards where the ineffectual arm-chair self-proclaimed spaceflight experts exist. You see the fact is that the Ares I launch vehicle is only troubled in cyber space. You see, cyber space is the playground where the children who actually hate... yes... HATE this launch vehicle, romp. They seem to get their little rocks off by generating all sorts of factual sounding, yet hollow expressions of the vehicle's short falls. Yet when one tries to pin them down by asking them to show you actual numbers or to provide documented, first-hand proof of what they claim, these arm-chair critics quickly scurry down the foggy path to Internet obscurity. You see, it is far more easy to post cyber venom as if scrolling on the wall of a stall in a public restroom than it is to actually build and launch a new vehicle. I like to refer to these ineffectual arm-chair self-proclaimed spaceflight experts simply as "Stall-wallers."

The problem is, that too often these stall-wall cyber critics are seen as actually having true credibility. Let us take a moment and look at that credibility. The first sign that you are reading the rants of a stall-waller is to look at where you are reading the rant. If it is on some "forum" someplace, look first at the poster's number of posts to date. If that total is four figures or more, and the person is not the site owner or a moderator- it should be a dead give away that you have a stall-waller. Ask yourself this, who has the time to sit and post on one or more forums that many times? Think about it- do the math, or let the forum do it for you and look at the poster's posts per day. What sort of a person, other than the one who actually runs the forum, has that kind of time? Certainly not someone who is involved in engineering launch vehicles for a living, nor someone who is managing a complex flight program. Instead you have some arm-chair dweeb who is using the Internet to make themselves look and feel important. The next test to see if you have a stall-waller is to simply ask for complete numbers, sources and documents to support their rant. When you get, instead, a wide ranging and foggy re-write of their original junk, ask again. Soon will follow the personal attack on you and the "well who are you to ask ME this?" retort. Stall-waller! Another great method for uncovering the stall-wallers is to watch for their "key" words and terms. The use of the term "Kool aid drinker" or any form there of, is a dead give away. Repeated use of "...my sources tell me..." is another term that is a dead give away. Additionally people who talk in all knowing terms, yet later ask dumb questions that should be solved by common knowledge is another give away. Lastly, watch for Herding- because these jerks like to run in packs and often need cover from others wearing the same style tin foil hats and thus will come to one another's rescue with the same unsubstantiated dribble.

That said- the rubber hit the runway this week in the halls of Congress when the Augustine Commission met with the people who actually will have genuine influence as to where the future of the United States space program will be. Apparently, those people in Congress haven't spent any time hanging out on Internet space forums... because their attitude toward the Ares I, and I-X was polar opposite of what the stall-wallers would have you believe.

It was a "cold shower" day for the Ares I haters.

It seems- as I've said all along- that the Ares I is only really "In trouble" on the Internet. The members of Congress were speaking largely in favor of Constellation and the Ares I. They seemed ready to reinstate the $3Billion dollars annually that was cut from the NASA budget and would make the Program of Record (Constellation) work again. They spoke, not in terms of Gap reduction, but in terms of gap elimination. It has been stated as fact by the stall-wallers that the Ares I has all sorts of "Show-stopper" technical issues- Augustine testified that his commission "...found none of this." Additionally, the stall-wallers have argued that the "sunk costs" of $8billion already spent on the Ares I did not matter at all when it comes to decision to cancel their hated vehicle and switching to one of their pet boosters (pick one- there are several). Yet the weight of sunk costs was a very big factor in the hearings.

I mentioned the fact that the Ares I and I-X were in trouble, was simply a figment of cyber space- while I was on one of the comment sections of NASAwatch a few months ago. The site's owner- who is normally level headed except when it comes to Mike Griffin or, apparently, the Ares I- told me to go and post that stuff on my own blog, because HIS "sources inside the Augustine Commission" had told him that the the Ares I was in deep, deep trouble in the commission. Gee... I just watched 2 days of hearings, and saw no indication what-so-ever that the Ares I was in "deep trouble." In fact I saw just the opposite. Augustine himself said today that there would have to be a very compelling reason to cancel the vehicle and right now there was none. Additionally, when asked about the I-X he stated flatly, "I think we should launch it." Gosh... his remarks do not sound to me like someone who has sat on a commission where a launch vehicle was in "deep, deep trouble." Apparently, all of the doom sayers exist only here in cyber space and not on the Augustine commission or in the halls of Congress... just like I said on NASAwatch.

A big ol' plate of NASA to cancel

There are so many aspects and dynamics going on right now in the world of the DC vote grubs that no one knows what will be next, or in the future for anything. Frankly I think we'll be lucky if they don't change the flag to green with a red hammer and sickle and then have Obama come on the TV and declare himself president for life- because most of the media would simply go along with that. In reality, the party in power is rapidly ripping itself to shreds while the other party is trying to figure out where all of that ripping noise is coming from. Into all of that, the Augustine commission is about to slide, in front of the most liberal left wing President in American history, a great big platter of NASA all garnished with "Nothing fits any budget" sprinkled all over it... YUM! Sitting there with his knife in one fist, his fork in another and his red hammer and sickle bib covering his nice suit what will the President do with such morsel?

Take a wild freakin' guess. Go ahead- all of you space coast workers who voted for him after his shoot and scoot campaign stop at KSC and all of you aerospace workers who voted for him because the union said you should, and all of you NASA workers who had senator's Bill and Babs present him to ya'... come on... guess!

Anyone think that after quadrupling the national debt in just six months and taking heat for running the fiscal boat of the United States full speed onto the rocks, the President may just take this opportunity to fulfill one of his most chanted campaign slogans and make a "change?"

The media is already on board- as it was said today in the Orlando Slant-enal it is now up to the President "...to decide whether human space exploration is a worthy priority or an unaffordable luxury." OH BOY!... it is a left-wing liberal's dream come true! How better to take the last thing that the USA actually leads in- spaceflight- and gut it, thus bringing us closer to the liberal's goal of finally making us a third world nation!

And even if President Obama does not decide to gut and castrate NASA- there is the congress. The Health Care socialization movement is so damaging the Democrats that they could lose more than 80 seats across both houses next year. That means that some bedrock NASA supporters may be out, and those who replace them will not be in the mode of increasing budgets of any agency. It is going to be cut, reduce and repeal in an attempt to pull back from the insane spending of our current one-party government.

So- the entire balance of United States human spaceflight now will be cast into the bee hive of indecision and CYA politics that is Washington DC. What will the President do? Lead? or vote "Present?" Perhaps he'll send us on a grand adventure to discover... EARTH! Ya' know- chase the left's global warming myth at the rate of a few billion bucks a year until he's thrown out of office. What will the headless chickens in the congress do? And even more important- what will the next batch of vote grubs who replace the current herd of wafflers do? Will they vote to allow our great garden of technology wilt on the vine- like they did four dechades ago? We can only watch.

Oddly, some at NASA are actually delighted at the prospect that project Constellation may be cancelled- because they feel it has been raiding money from the agency which will somehow find its way back to whatever they are personally working on. I fear they have a shock coming. In that embarrassingly inaccurate movie "The Right Stuff" there was a line that went "No bucks- no Buck Rogers." Of course the writers of that script, along with getting almost every other fact wrong, also got that quip wrong- the way it really works is No Buck Rogers- No Bucks. Without human spaceflight, NASA will fade into the federal background. Be careful what you wish for people- those who wished for the death of the Ares I, those who wished for the cancellation of Constellation, those who wished for an end to the shuttle program, those who wish for the end of the ISS, those who chanted for "Change" and those who wish for the end of NASA itself- you may all get what you want, and all at the same time.

Stacking the Ares I-X and giving the critics the finger

Stacking of the Ares I-X test vehicle has begun in Highbay 4 of the VAB at the Kennedy Space Center. Reading the details of this stacking as well as the activity that has led up to it, I am forced to compare and contrast the actual vehicle activity to some of the comments posted on the Internet by the Ares I-X haters and I've decided that the the erection of the Ares I-X is metaphorically giving all of the critics of the program "the finger" ... a 327.24 foot tall finger!


Standing nearly as tall as a Saturn V, the Ares I-X will be the first vehicle in nearly 3 and a half decades to cause the massive doors of the VAB to actually open all the way. It consists of a standard Space Shuttle SRB with a fifth segment simulator attached plus a dummy second stage which is topped by a mock-up Orion spacecraft and escape tower. Its mission is to be stacked, launched, flow through Max-Q and booster burn-out. Then be staged and have it's booster recovered. The target data to be gained is in the areas of vehicle and roll control, staging and separation, vehicle assembly, vehicle integration, launch operations, aerodynamic loads, thermal loads, vehicle structural loads, reentry dynamics of the five segment SRB and... in my opinion... how much can you piss off the arm-chair critics of the Ares I program.


When you do a bit of surfing or if you've followed the assorted forum-styled web sites, you'll find the critics freely tossing out the notion that the Ares I-X will teach us NOTHING and no data or useful lessons will be learned... zero, zip, na-da. They like to spew the fiction that the I-X is nothing like the Ares I and so it is a useless effort that equates to the launching of a model rocket.


Often I've countered by saying that the volumes of information gained in ground handling and pre-launch procedures alone are worth the effort. We're seeing much of that now. The truth is that you just don't slip a huge machine like this onto a launch wire in a school yard and light a fuse- which is the image that the Ares I haters want to depict. Indeed you may see some of them post here in retort to my point with the same old clap-trap that they always use.


I'd just say that instead you should listen to the folks who actually have hands-on this project, rather than the arm-chair critics who can do little more than vomit up the same tired and twisted slams against this project. The Ares I-X is growing- like a single middle finger directed toward the critics.... come to think of it, that'd make a cool T-shirt to wear to the launch... maybe I'll work on that one.